By Karen Spiller
Telegraph Staff
NASHUA – The local real estate market is coming out of a great year and headed into a good one, according to the president elect of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors.
“It’s not the bubble burst,” said Bonnie Guevin. “It’s the balloon that has a little air coming out of it.”
Guevin was one of three speakers who predicted what this year might hold for the economy at Outlook 2006, the Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce’s annual economic forecast luncheon Wednesday at the Sheraton Nashua Hotel. About 200 people attended the event.
Although the housing market is starting to stabilize, it’s still a buyer’s market, and this spring should be busy, Guevin said, since many buyers have been waiting to see what’s going to happen.
She called 2006 a “transition” year for real estate, noting that prices are still high.
First-time buyers will continue to have a tough time affording a home, she added, noting that the average sales price of a home in the Nashua-Manchester area is $280,000.
“We need to find a way to find that entry-level home,” Guevin said. “That, all over the country, is a major issue, and that’s going to affect the work force.”
R. Scott Bacon, president and CEO of TD Banknorth New Hampshire, who moderated the panel, agreed. He said work force housing is an important issue that trickles back to the towns.
“The towns have to step up and do some things to build these types of projects,” Bacon said. “It’s a very difficult issue and it will ultimately drive younger people out of the state and somewhere else.”
Paul Renaroli, vice president of new store development for Sears Holdings Corp., said his company has made a substantial investment in the local area, with stores in Nashua, Londonderry, Keene and Tewksbury, Mass.
While employment growth has been good at 5 percent nationally, Renaroli said it doesn’t feel good to the consumer.
“Job growth has been trailing overall economic growth, and we’re growing jobs at only 2 percent the rate we have seen,” he said.
“My fear as a retailer . . . I think the consumer may be somewhat fatigued.”
This year, he said, retailers should focus on customer service and understanding the customer to compete with the national retailer.
Merryll Rosenfeld, vice president of human resources for the Southern New Hampshire Health System, talked about the health system’s effort to attract and retain good employees and the difficulty in hiring nurses.
She noted that fewer men are going into the field these days, and some 94 percent of the nursing work force are leaving the field for less physically demanding jobs that pay more money.
People right out of college entering the health-care field earn about $45,000 a year to start, Rosenfeld said.
To attract workers, the health system invites high school juniors and seniors into the hospital to learn more about nursing, radiology and pharmacy jobs. In 2005, half of all new hires came from employee referrals, Rosenfeld said.
Overall, the speakers seemed to agree the year ahead looks to be a good one.
“I think we’re OK this year,” Guevin said.
The following shows the real estate outlook for 2006 for New Hampshire.
- 23,744 homes were sold in 2005 with an average sales price of $266,383.
- Average sales prices will continue to rise at a more moderate pace – expect a 5 percent maximum growth appreciation.
- Growth in total units in 2006 will remain flat. There will continue to be more buyers than homes available to meet demand.
- Realtors expect the modest rise in mortgage interest rates to cause some market cooling.
- Home sales activity is expected to remain strong in 2006.
- Residential real estate remains the backbone of the economy, with the homeownership rate at 69 percent.
– Source: NH MLS data from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors Inc.
